Going Against the Odds at Badger Thoughts
By: Jason Levine and Eric PetersonWe can’t resist the occasional friendly wage of a beer, especially where it concerns the fates of the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants respectively, but we’ve also been known to offer each other chances to get even on a wide variety of topics.
It’s time we let everyone else in on the action, so starting with this post and again every week (unless we decide differently), we’ll post something with a list of bets and odds — and for the first few weeks, we’ll even give you a little insight into what the odds mean, so if you decide to head to Las Vegas, you’ll know what you’re getting into.
So without further ado…this week’s Odds Thoughts. Let us know your odds in the comments section!
Odds on who will replace the recently dismissed Carol Bartz as the CEO of Yahoo:
Jerry Yang: 3-2
Barney Pell: 5-2
“A recycle like [Marc] Andreesen”: 5-1
Michael Arrington: 8-1
Mark Cuban: 20-1
Odds that the US Postal Service will default on a %5.5 billion payment to the US Treasury because Congress fails to act: 2-3
Odds that Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe will turn that frown upside-down? 10-1
Odds of Kara Swisher taking TC to the woodshed AGAIN in the next 48 hours? 1-2
Odds of TC / AOL / HuffPo making it impossible for her to resist? Off the board
Odds the Dodgers will still be playing in October? Off the board.
Odds the Giants will still be playing in October? 25-1 (but should be off the board)
Odds that Mark Cuban will buy the Dodgers? 2-1 (in my dreams). Reality? 100-1.
“Odds the Giants will still be playing in October? 25-1 (but should be off the board)”
Give ‘em a couple more days… although, it’s only been sixty years since.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrI7dVj90zs
Baseball Prospectus’s daily Monte Carlo simulation (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/) gives the Giants a 5.1% chance of making the playoffs, roughly 20-1 odds, suggesting that 25-1 may represent an arbitrage opportunity.
Crap. I didn’t realize the Dodgers and the Giants were STILL playing in September. *duck* Go Yankees! *smile*